Link to original article: https://block.co/blockchain-use-in-intellectual-property/submitted by BlockDotCo to u/BlockDotCo [link] [comments]
Patents, trademarks, and industrial designs, along with copyrights, are all types of intellectual property protections that help creators of written stories, inventions, artistic works, or symbols to stop people from stealing or copying their pieces of work. In this article, we will examine how blockchain is used in Intellectual Property rights.
Broadly speaking, Intellectual Properties (IP) are “unique, value-adding creations of the human intellect that result from human ingenuity, creativity, and inventiveness.” (Kalanje, 2006).
By observing trends, we can identify a steady increase in the number of Intellectual Property applications worldwide. According to official statistics by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), applications worldwide of patents grew 72.3% over ten years, increasing to 3,326,300 from 2008 to 2018. Trademarks grew an astonishing 160% over the same period, to a record 14,321,800 number of applications, while industrial design applications were 1,312,600, growing by 61%. Every country has a specific authority where to apply for proper protection. However, it is becoming increasingly common that these jurisdictions will utilize blockchain technology to provide a smoother, faster, and cheaper application process and a system that ensures an incorruptible and secure timestamping through the hashing function.
How does it work?
Blockchain ‘trust’ is guaranteed by hashing algorithms, instead of third parties. Since, by default, hashes are unique and cannot be misinterpreted, nor two same hashes can be produced, it’s just easy to identify and match that hash with a unique document creating an unambiguous proof of existence. This way, a permanent ledger of data is created to prove the existence and the lifecycle of a specific IP right, enhancing its protection at a registry or in court.
Blockchain use in Intellectual Property potential is enormous, aiding in the evidence of creatorship and provenance authentication to registering and clearing IP rights; digital rights management; establishing and enforcing IP agreements, licenses, or exclusive distribution networks through smart contracts; and transmitting payments in real-time to IP owners.
In the case of patents, the real benefit of using blockchain lies in the immutable ledger of records with a tamper-proof code providing strong evidence of facts about an invention life-cycle. However, unlike copyrights, any new creation will still have to be patented with the proper authority or anyone else will be free to copy it or claim it without incurring any legal trouble.
“Deploying blockchain technology within the patent system could reduce inefficiencies in recording and efficiently agreeing the time of registrations, perhaps across several national patent systems” (Boucher et al., 2017).
In the case of Copyrights, these do not need to be registered with a government authority, therefore blockchain can have a major role in ensuring that evidence can be provided of authorship, use, and status of a specific production. Particularly, in case of disputes in court, blockchain provides strong evidence to prove an inventor’s right on intellectual property, and protect legal rights on authorship. So, when including writing and literary or artistic works, creators get some type of protection automatically via blockchain, whereas with others, they have to apply for it.
Trademarks, on the other hand, are the IP protection type that can most benefit from blockchain because it can easily, quickly, and very cheaply prove how similar are two marks to each other and who can claim to have used it first, providing immutable and timestamped proof of dates and usage. By using blockchain, many of the questions which can arise about exactly when, where, and how the trademark was used, can be instantly answered.
Cyprus-based company Block.co provides services in a range of different industries, and timestamping trademarks on the blockchain is one of them. The company is a spin-off of the University of Nicosia, one of the biggest blockchain contributors globally, and its mission is to eliminate document fraud in all sectors, by transforming the way institutions manage digital records.
International business and technology lawyer Christiana Aristidou makes large use of Block.co’s services and especially in copyrights and trademarks for several of her clients.
“We consider the Block.co solution indispensable towards our objective of constantly enhancing the provision of our legal services through innovative technological solutions. The protection of copyright and other relevant intellectual property rights now involves a simple, fast, automated, and cost-efficient, blockchain-backed certificate issuance. Using blockchain, thereby ensuring a transparent, immutable, secure, time-stamped, and tamper-proof recording of data, the Block.co solution offers a revolutionary and innovative means to protect our clients’ intellectual property, instead of other time-consuming and costly traditional processes.” she recently stated.
“Specifically, our clients’ data and evidence supporting their authorship, invention, or creation of any property that warrants copyright protection, may now be recorded in a digital document, which is then verified in a trusted and time-stamped manner on a blockchain. Our clients retain ownership and control of their data, having been granted easy access to a self-verifiable blockchain-secured certificate of such data.”
Smart contracts could also represent an important asset of blockchain technology because they can be used in intellectual property to establish and enforce agreements such as licenses and allow the transmission of payments in real-time to IP owners. Indeed, they allow automatic payments for transactions between users and rights holders with no middle man, thereby cutting out intermediate fees, longer procedures, and bureaucratic hurdles.
Blockchain in IP around the world
In Europe, various governmental agencies and IP registries such as the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO) are actively involved in researching and promoting blockchain capabilities within the industry.
In particular, they believe blockchain can transform IP rights by highlighting, in one of their advanced research forums, that:
In the United States, we find a clear example of how blockchain is used to protect American businesses from IPR theft by testing imports. Since blockchain has proven to be beneficial to streamline communication between multiple parties securely, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), with the funding of the Department of Homeland Security’s Science & Technology Directorate, recently completed a proof-of-concept (PoC) of a blockchain platform with that specific aim. Personal data and trade secrets would be kept safe at all times using encrypted keys, with the blockchain acting as an immutable ledger to record trade transactions.
In Southeast Asia, Thailand is leading the way in developing blockchain technology for IP protection. Various organizations and government offices have invested in projects aimed at implementing the tech to make IPR processes more efficient and faster. The Ministry of Commerce has recently launched a feasibility study to explore the use of blockchain for IP registration in the country, while the Thai Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), in collaboration with the British Embassy, were designated to analyze the study and translate it into action plans for future developments.
Conclusion — Blockchain limits and benefits in IP
As with every new technology, especially the most disruptive ones, setbacks can be both from a technical and a systemic perspective. Enormous processing power and scalability are still the main issues from a technical point, whereas a system that could connect registries across the world through a single distributed ledger represents the main challenge, not only for IP-related industries. Thankfully, Block.co’s solution already uses the Bitcoin blockchain and its network effect for this purpose, envisioning truly decentralized and secure storage for IP rights, that will outlive any issuing institution itself.
An international standardized system and platform that could facilitate global communication and successful management of IP rights via blockchain is an ambition that is reflected in healthcare, law, and many other industries. On the other hand, blockchain based IP rights enforcement is already a huge achievement, especially for those small artists who could not afford teams of lawyers to defend them in disputes to prove records of their authorship.
For more info, contact Block.co directly or email at [email protected].
Tel +357 70007828
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Link to our article: https://block.co/blockchain-in-healthcare/submitted by BlockDotCo to u/BlockDotCo [link] [comments]
There’s never been a better time to provide proof-of-health solutions in the healthcare system globally. While it’s difficult to comprehend the significance of the role that technology may offer in such difficult times, essentially it can be nailed down to its basic concept of simplifying work and coordinating activities, which could have helped avoid the worst crisis people have experienced in their lifetime. If the healthcare system would adopt technological innovations in the early stages, it could have benefited and saved many lives.
Although the healthcare system has traditionally been slow in embracing the latest digital solutions, just like many other industries, we’ve observed in a previous article how the Covid-19 crisis has accelerated the adoption of digital technologies on a global scale in several industries, including healthcare.
The latest webcast brought to the audience by Block.co hosted some high profile experts from the industry. They illustrated how blockchain especially, together with other technologies such as IoT, and AI could in the future help elevate prompt responses, and provide more secure and efficient storage of data, something that has been missed in the recent pandemic.
Ahmed Abdulla from Digipharm, Dr. Alice Loveys from EY, and Dimitrios Neocleous from VeChain were hosted by Georgina Kyriakoudes, one of the first in the world to hold an MSc in Digital Currency, founder of Dcentric.Health and creator of the permissioned blockchain ecosystem app called Aria, which aims to transform the patient healthcare experience by giving individuals full control of their medical records.
Blockchain’s benefits in healthcare are primarily identified by efficiency, specifically on the transfer of data, facilitation of goods transport via the supply chain, prevention of counterfeit medicines sale, secure storage, and exchange of data around ID management. The impressive projects all the webcast guests have developed in the industry enable just these features, from the digitization of patient records to storage and exchange of medical data as well as easier processing of funds.
Ahmed Abdulla founded Digipharm with the idea of issuing tokens to allow patients to be in control of their medical records at all times. Moreover, tokens are issued to be paid for anonymously sharing personal medical data to help research; pay for healthcare based on how it has improved quality of life.
“We have experienced a disparity in Covid-19 tests costs around the world. For instance, getting tested in Cyprus costs around €60 while in the US it may add up to a few thousand dollars. This is due to the way countries arrange payment setups from payers to providers. Blockchain empowers people to take ownership of their records and funds while providing transparency of processes. This is where blockchain can be robust, by increasing transparency and allowing the patient to secure money transfer and hold their own records”, stated Ahmed.
His work as blockchain advisor at the UN Economic Commission for Europe is helping set up standards for the blockchain ecosystem, namely how the system should be used safely, and in a way that benefits all stakeholders.
“I lead the blockchain and healthcare team at the UN center for trade facilitation and e-business where we developed a blockchain and trade facilitation white paper; the second phase will soon provide an advanced technology advisory board to advise private or public stakeholders on what’s the best technology to use. It might not always be blockchain, hence we first understand and then advise if the tech is right for them or not. Blockchain is clunky, expensive, and not always proper for the organization we work with”, continued the blockchain expert.
Most people may prefer public and permissionless blockchain because it has major advantages over a private and permissioned one. Transparency stands out for the way the ledger is shared and for due diligence becoming unnecessary as a result. This means costs are also cheaper, in the range of 100% lower. On the other hand, a public decentralized blockchain has a major disadvantage since no legal framework is laid out. This means uncertainty as there is still a grey area in the legal field that might create confusion.
Dimitrios Neocleous is Ecosystem Manager at VeChain Tech and directly supported digital and technological solutions provider I-DANTE with the creation of the E-NewHealthLife and the E-HCert for the Mediterranean Hospital of Cyprus. Both apps give patients control over their health records, improve medical data sharing, and increase hospital operational efficiencies by simplifying the process of visiting a hospital.
E-NewHealthLife is a complex ecosystem solution that starts from a patient’s visit to an emergency room. A card with the reason for a patient’s visit is issued; it gets time-stamped; the patient is sent to the waiting room; once the patient’s turn comes and the medical check is completed, the card is scanned and the visit is closed. Patients can digitally access all diagnoses that took place anytime at the hospital.
“The platform produces a digital health passport, which is an encrypted non-fungible card that patients can use to identify themselves automatically when registering at the hospital’s emergency room. The passport is stored within a mobile app called E-HCert, which keeps track of each patient’s medical data and can be shared as needed”, announced Dimitrios.
E-HCert App is a Covid-19 lab test electronic wallet and pushes up the results of a patient who’s been tested for COVID. It has been proven to be very successful so far; currently, 2000 people who transited through the Larnaca airport in Cyprus have downloaded the app. With time-stamped records, it’s able to provide data such as the day and time when the sample was collected, it offers immutability, security, and integrity of data.
“Covid-19 showed a deficiency in healthcare. The spread of the virus could have been prevented if we had digitization of processes and transparency of data through blockchain, and transfer of data through an authorized share of records. An open permissionless decentralized blockchain helps bring ownership of medical records back to the patient, and that is not possible in a centralized system”, continued the VeChain representative.
Dr. Alice Loveys is EY ‘s healthcare blockchain leader in the US and has been at the forefront of emerging healthcare technologies for her entire career including being a pioneer in electronic health record adoption, health information exchange, and privacy and security.
She believes that “blockchain technology is like a plumbing system that brings clean and transparent trusted data that can be used. It’s not proper for a track and trace system as it invades privacy unless there is the consent from patients, in that case, blockchain transparent share of data would be extremely useful for medical research and testing”.
One problem we experienced during the crisis is the confusion that arose with divulged information and the frustration that comes with it. People do not understand anymore which information can be trusted; at first, it looked like COVID-19 symptoms were not dangerous, then it came out that they actually were. Masks were not useful at the beginning, then they suddenly became necessary.
“Blockchain could have prevented lockdown and economic crisis through data management in that a much faster response would have been provided to tackle misinformation because blockchain can help manage data from different sources”, continues Dr. Loveys. “Moreover, it’s a great way to protect the database. Instead of moving any private sensitive medical data through the more traditional digital systems, blockchain simply allows us to send an algorithm, encrypted data that safeguards the information. It’s not a great use as a database as it does not scale, therefore we would not be able to store information for billions of people in it. But for the data that is in the blockchain, using algorithms, makes it very convenient and secure”.
Another topic discussed during the webcast was the GDPR compliance for blockchain. GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) was created before blockchain therefore it doesn’t account for decentralized technologies. Generally speaking, it all comes down to how the technology is used and what kind of data is incorporated in it. Timestamping data without invading anyone’s privacy, or timestamp of consented data, should determine no issue at all. This is what privacy by design stands for, taking human values into account in a well-defined manner throughout the whole process.
Block.co, powered by the University of Nicosia, is establishing itself as a global leader in the issuance of digital immutable and secure certificates timestamped on the Bitcoin blockchain. In the field of healthcare, it could include medical records, prescription issuance, insurance disputes, supply chain documentation, and any type of verifiable certificate that requires authenticity at its core.
For more info, contact Block.co directly or email at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
Tel +357 70007828
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[The original article appeared on: https://block.co/blog/]submitted by BlockDotCo to u/BlockDotCo [link] [comments]
The emergence of disruptive technologies is always complemented by the creation and development of new models, mostly resulting in new economic concepts and business structures. The rise of the internet over 30 years ago, laid the foundation for the creation of new markets, for instance, that book store that sells all publications from around the world — Amazon. Or new concepts like the ‘Instant gratification’ that contributed to the introduction of business models like Netflix, finally allowing consumers to get instant access to films and series.
Blockchain is bound to create new models in all fields that regulate our lives, from a financial perspective to the regulation of infrastructures facilitating interactions and transactions in a way that would not be possible without the internet. This is one of the reasons why it is often referred to as the next generation of the internet or Web3, where WWW revolutionized information, Web2 facilitated interactions and now Web3 has the potential to innovate agreement and value exchange structures using the internet in a decentralized manner.
From a technological perspective, the similarities between the two are impressive.
We are currently believed to be in what were the early stages of the internet, with similar challenges around scalability, costs, and education, limiting the development of breakthrough applications and mass adoption. These internet challenges were resolved over time, therefore we should expect a similar progression in Blockchain.
In 1996, major internet service AOL could not manage a high volume of Internet users and went down for nineteen hours. Gradually the average internet speed in the US went from 50Kbps in 1999 to 18.7Mbps of 2017. Similarly, in 2017 the Ethereum blockchain failed to sustain the spike of on-chain transactions caused by the famous blockchain game CryptoKitties and the platform suffered the most serious network clog to date. These failures are necessary to the development of technology. Just like it was clear in 1996 that the internet had to face a scalability issue, it’s been evident for years now that blockchain also has to find ways to deal with the problem. Developers, programmers, experts, and academics are all working on the improvement of the system but there won’t be a definite solution, just like there wasn’t for the internet.
As popular Bitcoin expert and educator Andreas Antonopoulos mentioned in his book The Internet of Money, “Scale is not a goal to achieve; it is a definition of what you can do with the network today.” Scalability was built on the internet based on layers on top of the basic protocol and it looks like this will be the possible progression for the blockchain too. The Lightning Network, layer2 or off-chain protocol, is paving the way for Bitcoin fast and small payments along with a major focus on providing full privacy to transactions. Many believe in this respect we are still in 1994 Internet time, when the TCP/IP, HTML, and FTP were invented, leading to the successful business models represented by Facebook, Airbnb and Uber later. In the blockchain, breakthrough Dapps have yet to appear and will emerge in the coming years.
User Interface will help drive adoption in the same ways it helped the internet. At the time of the Arpanet, the technical foundation of the internet, the system was difficult to use for both nontechnical and technical people. The search functionality relied on an IP address and navigating the internet meant inserting a long string of numbers in order to find what you were looking for. It was easy to get confused, mistype numbers, etc. When the switch between the IP address and the URL happened, it became easier to navigate the web thanks to a more efficient and user-friendly experience overall.
Blockchain usage and benefit are still clunky. We still need a 12 or 24-word phrase to access a private cryptocurrency wallet and send a transaction to a long string of numbers (just like it happened with the early internet addresses) to validate it. All of this will disappear once user interfaces will be given the right attention and mass adoption will likely benefit from a system easier to use. It is clear that in the blockchain development more focus has been given so far to make the technology more secure, reliable, and robust at the expense of the user experience. Once the strength of the network/system is secured there will be a shift of interest in developing the interface with a resulting better user-friendly experience. Maybe it’s the right evolution and one that will bring a stronger technology structure overall.
Adoption is another important parallel we can highlight, not only with the Internet but with all the disruptive technologies previous to the World Wide Web. It took 46 years for electricity, 35 years for telephone, 14 years for TV, and 7 years for the Web to reach 25% of global market penetration. We can expect a similar growth trajectory to happen in the cryptocurrency/blockchain space, perhaps at a faster rate since the world is more connected now, thanks to the already existing internet interactions.
Stay tuned because in part two of this blog we will explore the parallels between the technologies in education, capitals, and start-ups and the decentralization of the blockchain as the main aspect that will revolutionize the Internet as well.
In the meantime, blockchain as a distributed ledger for a secure network of transactions is finding wide adoption as is the case for academic and ID credentials embraced by The University of Nicosia and Block.co. The University of Nicosia and Block.co can help provide the necessary technical expertise to follow the whole process from creation to publication on the blockchain where the document will be safely stored for life and where it can be independently verified by any third party. They were the first ones to do it globally as early as 2014.
For more info, contact [Block.co](mailto:Block.co) directly or email at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
Tel +357 70007828
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TOKEN Roll x FENBUSHI DIGITAL
Analyst: Song Shuangjie
Special Adviser: Shen Bo Rin
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC might commence around May 2019. The mainstream institutions join the game and ETF might be the driving force of the fourth round of price cycle.
BTC has undergone three rounds of price cycles. ‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which makes it easily get mistaken that BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. There are 3 major rules of the BTC price cycle:
A. BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. A complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The price-rising section will commence one year ahead of the time before the output is halved. The BTC output was halved for the first time at the end of November 2012, and before that the BTC price touched the bottom in November 2011. The BTC output was halved for the second time in July 2016, as the BTC price touched the bottom in August 2015. As you can see, each time BTC output halving, is the start of a price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begins with it.
B. BTC price fluctuation range decreases as market value increasing. The BTC’s (in circulation) market value varies with its price fluctuations, which means BTC’s price rising makes its market value increases, and the price fluctuation range decreases. It is similar to the historical process of other asset classes. During the first price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 10636 times which was the biggest gain, and the maximum drawdown was declined by 93.76%. During the second price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, and declined by 83.93% maximum. During the third price cycle, BTC rose by 98.57 times at most, the maximum declining has not been confirmed yet.
C. The innovation led by BTC is constantly evolving and more and more approved by the mainstream. From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, and many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. With the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital certification, the improvement of practitioners' awareness, and the evolution of government regulation, the innovation led by BTC has evolved and is more approved by the mainstream.
The third round of the price cycle might come to an end around May 2019, and followed by the fourth round of price cycle. The maximum rise in the BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will be smaller than last three cycles. BTC's increasing market value demands more capital. Digital token shall embrace supervision to absorb more institutional funds. ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, it will shift from Crowdsale to ETF, and from deregulation to embracing supervision.
Risk Tips: ETFs have put capital amount into this market less than that we expected. Quantum computer technology is advancing by leaps and bounds
1 The First Round of Price Cycle .
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.3 BTC-led innovatioized by the mainstream
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
List of Graphs
Graph 1: BTC Price Trend in The First Price Cycle (in USD)
Graph 2: BTC price trend in the second round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 3: The number of tokens in 2013 has increased significantly Graph 4: BTC price trend in the third round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 5: VIX index and BTC price are negatively correlated
Graph 6: Crowdsale has dominated blockchain investment since 2017 (millions of US dollars)
Graph 7: A large number of Crypto Funds were established in recent years.
Graph 8: ETH price trend (in USD)
Graph 9: ETH price is positively related to the size of Crowdsale financing
Graph 10: Lightning network capacity continues to grow
Graph 11: The number of lightning network channels continues to grow
Graph 12: The global Crowdsale growth rate slows down in 2018 .
Graph 13: Crowdsale’s fundraising has started to decline since 2018 .
Graph 14: Significant growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector in 2018
Graph 15: BTC block reward trend reduction
Graph 16: BTC price cycle and halving mechanism (in USD)
Graph 17: BTC market value scale trend increase
Graph 18: BTC price fluctuations become smaller
Graph 19: Admission to mainstream institutions has continued since the end of 2018
Graph 20: The third round of the price cycle may be completed around May 2019
Graph 21: The current stage of the price cycle has been probable more than half, and the downside space is limited
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. --Mark Twain
‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which results in producing an idea, in some investors’ mind, that the price of BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. No matter it is the A-share market of 2007 or the one of 2015, or any ‘bubble time’ in human history, the cycle power played its role. As far as BTC is concerned, its price has also experienced three rounds of cycles.
In addition, when the asset price is in a dark period of continuous decline and weak rebound, the power of the cycle also works. As long as it is a valuable asset, its price will eventually bounce back from the bottom. Opportunities have always been there, if you have an asset with high potential in hand. In the dark moments before dawn, the more you are afraid, the more you will be confused. At this time, you have to believe in the value investing. ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’, not the other way around. That means, we shall invest reversely, buying undervalued assets gradually in the bottom region of price decline cycle; selling overvalued assets gradually in the top region of price-rising cycle; and following the trend in other time region of the cycle.
1 The First Round of Price Cycle
The first round of BTC price cycle lasted for 610 days, from March 2010 to November 2011, and in this cycle, BTC price rise rate was the highest of BTCs three price cycles.
The price rise stage of the first round of price cycle, from March 2010 to June 2011, lasted for 447 days. The starting price was 0.003 USD/piece, and the highest price was 31.91 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 10,636 times. The price decline section of the first round of price cycle, from June 2011 to November 2011, lasted for 163 days. In this price decline section, the starting price of BTC was $31.91 per piece, and the lowest price was $1.99 per piece. The decline rate was 94%.
On May 22, 2010, the famous BTC Pizza dealt. Laszlo Hanyecz from Jacksonville, FL, bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTCs. Each price ofBTC is less than 0.01US dollars.
In the first round of the price cycle, there is no explicit positive or negative factors causing BTC's price huge fluctuation. Fluctuations are more like in a “natural” situation. Before the first BTC bubble bursted in November 2011, its price was in a trend of increasing. The reason of rise was that the price base of BTC was very low. With the understanding of BTC gradually getting better, the demand increased, and then, the price rose. For example, June 2011, WikiLeaks and some organizations began accepting BTC donations.
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
The second round of BTC price cycle lasted for 1377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, and in this cycle, the price of BTC exceeded gold for the first time.
The price rise stage of the second round of price cycle, from November 2011 to November 2013, lasted for 743 days. The starting price was $1.99 USD/piece, and the highest price was 1,242 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 623 times. The price decline section of the second round of price cycle. From November 2013 to August 2015, lasted for 634 days. In this price decline stage, the starting price of BTC was 1,242 USD per piece, and the lowest price was 199.57 USD per piece. The decline rate was 84%.
At the second price cycle, the range of application of BTC has been greatly expanded. In November 2012, WordPress began to accept BTC; and in October 2013, the world's first BTC ATM was deployed in a coffee shop in Vancouver where customers could buy and sell BTC. In November 2013, the University of Nicosia announced accepting BTC for tuition, the university's chief financial officer called it "gold of tomorrow"; In addition to some underground economy and gray economy began to accept BTC, BTC is also getting closer to daily life.
The success of BTC popularized altcoins. The first type of altcoin LTC (Litecoin) was created in October 2011, and it is the time when the BTC price came to the end of price decline. In 2011, Namecoin and SwiftCoin were born successively. In 2012, Bytecoin and Peercoin were issued, however, BTC was still in the stage of rising slowly from the bottom, and the market was not hot. Along with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the altcoins is rampant, and a large number of altcoins are issued. According to CoinMarketCap data, there were 66 kinds of altcoins at the end of 2013, while there were less than 10 at the beginning of the year.
The safe-haven properties of BTC are widely approved. BTC was a choice for people in many countries that are in crises. The residents flocked to BTC, hoping to maintain assets value through BTC. This phenomenon has occurred many times during the European debt crisis. For example, in early 2013, in order to get the bailout, the Cyprus government imposed taxes on deposits and imposed strict capital controls. In order to prevent property from shrinking, the Cypriot people rushed to bank runs and exchanged their currencies for BTC. The price of BTC quickly rose from 30 something to 265 US dollars.
Due to the lack of supervision, BTC is often affected by negative events, which makes the market confidence in the danger of collapsing. In October 2013, the FBI seized approximately 26,000 BTCs from the Silk Road website, causing the BTC price to collapse to 110 US dollars. On December 5, 2013, the People's Bank of China banned the use of BTC by Chinese financial institutions, which made the price of BTC declined. In February 2014, Mt. Gox, the largest BTC exchange at the time, said that 850,000 BTCs of its customers were stolen, worth nearly 500 million US dollars, and BTC prices fell nearly half, from 867 to 439 US dollars.
The emergence of a large number of altcoins caused market bleeding. Since 2014, the number of altcoins has exploded. By August 2015, the number has reached 556, resulting in diversion of funds and market expansion. On May 1, 2013, BTC accounted for 94.29% of the market value of all tokens, and the market value of other tokens except the top 10 tokens was about 1%. By August 25, 2015, the proportion of BTC is about 83%, and the other tokens account for 4%, which is obvious.
No matter how magical token is, it is still a kind of asset. The mean return of value is a basic common sense of investment. The value will pull the price back to it, just like the gravity. The risk increases with the price rises, and the value appears when the price declines. In the rising section of this cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, which is a great rise rate. When the price is too high, and the potential return in the future is insufficient, the attractiveness to new investors will fall, and the old investors will leave and look for more lucrative assets. Once the power of trend investors exhausted, the trend will reverse.
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
The third round of price cycle of BTC is not over and is currently in the downward phase of the cycle. The price increased from August 2015 and lasted for 845 days till December 2017. The starting price of the price-rising cycle BTC was 199.57 USD/piece, and the highest price was close to 20,000 USD/piece. The rise rate is up to 99 times. Since December 2017, the price started to decline. The price has fallen to the lowest 3,191.30 US dollars up to now, a drop of 84%.
BTC networks expanded rapidly, and BTC has gained increasing recognition among legislators and traditional financial companies. Studies have shown that by November 2013, the commercialization of BTC is no longer driven by the underground economy, but by legitimate businesses. During this price cycle, people from more countries can get in touch with, select, trade and use BTC on a daily basis. In January 2016, Bitcoin computing capacity reached 1 exahash/S for the first time; In March 2016, the Japanese cabinet acknowledged that BTC has a function similar to real money. In 2017, Norway's largest online bank Skandiabanken integrated BTC accounts. In December 2017, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, which is an important step for BTC to take toward mainstream investment. In October 2018, Fidelity launched its independent subsidiary Fidelity Digital Asset Services to provide digital asset services to institutional customers. In December 2018, the first round of financing was completed by the token exchange Bakkt launched by the Intercontinental Exchange. In February 2019, Nasdaq officially launched - Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX)- two indexes. The pension fund of US invests in the encryption fund, the mainstream organization is accelerating, and the relevant infrastructure is gradually improved.
BTC has become a risky asset. Under the current “three lows” environment - low interest rates, low spreads and low volatility, investors are seeking high returns, which leads to excessive financial risk behaviors and complacency, investors' risk appetite, and high leverage tools and the acceptance of high-risk products has increased, arbitrage transactions have prevailed, liquidity mismatches have been severe, and the overall market is fragile. As the results we can see that, the price of BTC is increasingly correlated with the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index). A lower VIX index indicates that investors expect less volatility, while a higher VIX indicates higher expected volatility. The lower VIX index indicates that investors are optimistic about S&P 500, while the higher VIX means that investors are uncertain about the market outlook. When market volatility declines, investors buy stocks and other types of risk assets, when the market volatility rises, investors sell risky assets.
Risk assets will be dumped when risk appetite reduces panic market. BTC bid farewell to the nature of safe-haven assets and become a risky asset. Since December 2017, with the decline of the VIX index, the price of BTC rises, and the price of BTC is negatively correlated with the VIX index. At the beginning of 2018, the VIX index skyrocketed and BTC fell rapidly. In October 2018, the global market risk aversion trend increased, the VIX index went up, and the BTC price also fell sharply.
Crowdsale has become the main financing method in the blockchain field. Crowdsale was born in the second round of the price cycle, Mastercoin did the world's first Crowdsale in July 2013. In 2014, Ethereum also raised funds through Crowdsale, when the price of ETH was less than 0.22 USD per piece. After 2016, when it is in the third price cycle, Crowdsale is popular around the world, and many websites began to provide information and discussion communities for Crowdsale. From a global perspective, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment since 2017, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. In 2017, Crowdsale raised 7.4 billion US dollars, and in the first half of 2018, Crowdsale Raised 12 billion US dollars.
The Crypto Fund emerged. Along with the Crowdsale boom, a large number of Crypto Funds were created. The number of Crypto Funds newly established in 2017 was nearly 200, far exceeding the total amount of the Crypto funds created in previous years, which fully demonstrated that, with the rise in the price of the token, the enthusiasm of funds to blockchain field is high.
The rise of blockchain 2.0, the Crowdsale tide pushed ETH up nearly 10,000 times. In the third round of the BTC (Token) price cycle, the biggest star is not BTC, but ETH. Crowdsale after 2016, issued tokens mainly through Ethereum, which represented the rise of ETH in the blockchain 2.0 era. Crowdsale prosperity boosted the rise of ETH. On January 13, 2018, the price of ETH rose to a peak of 1,432.88 US dollars per piece, which is 6512 times rise rate comparing to its initial price.
The ETH price has a significant positive correlation with the growth rate of Crowdsale financing. The growth rate of Crowdsale financing decreased by 69.23% in 2015, the price of ETH decreased by 66.30% in the same year. In 2016, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 2737.5%, and ETH increased by 753.74%. In 2017, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 3,159.91%, and ETH rose by 8809.91%.
Plan for public blockchain performance improvement emerged, and significant progress were made in lightning network. With the popularization of blockchains, the congestion of BTC and other public chains has gradually emerged, and performance has become one of the bottlenecks in the blockchain industry. In 2018, the performance-improvement plan of the public blockchain emerged. Improvements were made to the difference in blockchain logical architecture, including on-chain capacity expansion schemes by improving consensus mechanism and sharing, and off-chain capacity expansion schemes by status channel, sidechain, off-chain computing, and Layer 0 expansion scheme that enhance the scalability of the blockchain by optimizing the underlying data transmission protocol of the blockchain. Since the main net of BTC lightning network goes live, the number and capacity of channels have been increasing. As of March 10, 2019, the capacity has reached 790 BTC, and the number of channels has reached 35,464.
Note: The Unique channel refers to the channel that is directly connected to the node for the first time, and the Duplicate channel refers to the channel between the nodes that have been connected.
The standardization of the token is promoted. On January 22, 2018, South Korea required all BTC dealers to disclose their identity, thereby prohibiting anonymous trading of BTC. During the first quarter of 2018, Facebook, Google and Twitter prohibited the promotion of Crowdsale, while the US Securities and Exchange Commission investigated a large number of Crowdsale projects, and issued bans to some Crowdsale projects. Regardless of the government's attitude towards the token, it is committed to incorporating the token into the regulatory framework for legal compliance.
The Crowdsale bubble bursted and the magical story is no longer magical. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 871 Crowdsale were completed in the world. These projects involved directions as distributed analogous Facebook, twitter, amazon, and next-generation public chain (blockchain 3.0), etc. These projects have raised a large amount of funds, but the actual operating is worrying. The promotion of the project dissipated a large amount of funds, but the actual development progress was far less than expected, resulting in the market's expectation failure and the diversion of funds from the mainstream token. Superimposed the impact of more and more negative news, technical adjustment requirements and market sentiment fluctuation. The market enters a negative cycle, as the decline begins.
In 2018, there has been rapid growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector, indicating that venture capital still have good expectations about the application and future prospects of the blockchain. According to Coindesk data, the risk investment in the blockchain sector in 2018 reverse the decline of 2017, year-on-year increase of 257%, and the total amount for the year 2018 reached 3.1 billion US dollars.
BTC peaked first. In terms of time, in the third round of the price cycle, the first to peak is BTC, which reached 19,870.62 USD per piece in December 2017. The peak of ETH happened later than BTC, in January 2018. EOS did not peak until April. The important reason for BTC to peak first is that the amount of funds needed to support the BTC market value scale is the largest. When the market’s ability to carry on is not enough, it is inevitable for the price of BTC to react first.
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
The price cycle of BTC has obvious regularity, and some unchanging factors determine the price fluctuation of BTC.
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
One full BTC price cycle lasts approximately four years. In the first round of price cycles, the measure of time span is not reliable because of the availability of BTC trading prices. The second round of the price cycle lasted for 1,377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, about four years.
The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period, and the price-rising cycle starts one year before each halving. At the end of November 2012, the first production of BTC was halved, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 25, and in November 2011, the price of BTC has bottomed out, and the halving of BTC is one year after the second price-rising cycle. In July 2016, production of BTC was halved the second time, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 12.5. In August 2015, BTC had already bottomed out, and BTC's production was reduced again one year after the third price-rising cycle started.
BTC output halving blows the horn of each price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begin. Although it is not BTC output halving that brings the price-rising cycle, but the halving of BTC output significantly reduced the growth rate of BTC supply, speeding up the rise of BTC price and the price-rising cycle. From November 2011 to November 2012, before the halving of BTC output, BTC increased by 6.74 times in one year. From November 2012 to November 2013, BTC price increased by 99.57 times. In the third price-rising cycle, BTC price rose by a maximum of 2.87 times in about 11 months before the production cut. After halving, BTC price rose by a maximum of 29.73 times in about 11 months.
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
The change in the market value scale of BTC (circulation) is mainly caused by its price fluctuations, and has little to do with the changes in the total amount of BTC output. According to CMC data, by April 28, 2013, the total amount of BTC that had been mined was about 11.18 million pieces, which is more than 53% of the total amount of BTC of 21 million pieces. The halving mechanism of BTC also accelerated the marginal decline of BTC total growth rate. Compared with the amount of BTC already mined, the new supply of BTC is very insignificant. In addition, the volatility of BTC prices far exceeds the volatility of BTC's total output, and the market value of BTC fluctuates with its price.
The market value of BTC has increased in trend. Because of the trend of BTC price-rising, the number of BTC total output has also increased in one direction, and the market value of BTC has increased in the long run. According to CMC data, on April 28, 2013, BTC's market value in circulation was only 1.5 billion US dollars. By the peak of the third price-rising cycle, the market value increased to 326.1 billion US dollars, and the current market value also reached 113.8 billion US dollars, increased by 74.87 times.
The price volatility of BTC is gradually getting smaller. With the increasing of BTC market value in trend, the BTC market is becoming more and more mature, more and more accepted by the public, more and more professional organizations are participating, the compliance operation is becoming mainstream, and the BTC price volatility is decreasing. Similar to the historical process of other asset classes, and the same thing is repeated again and again. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and the fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed
4.3 BTC-led innovation continues to evolve and is more and more recognized by the mainstream
From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment.
The original intention of Nakamoto to create BTC is to establish a more efficient means of trading that can be electronically transferred in a safe, verifiable and non-tamperable form. During the early days of bitcoin and blockchain development, this drove the development of most applications of BTC and blockchain. However, with the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital token, the recognition of practitioners, and the evolution of government regulation, the changes led by BTC continue to evolve and gain more mainstream recognition.
More and more countries recognize that the blockchain reflects its unique value in many fields. The government has gradually incorporated digital token into regulation, and mainstream institutions are increasingly recognizing BTC. In 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, as BTC took an important step toward mainstream investment, improving the accessibility of BTC to traditional financial institutions. In March 2017, Cameron's Cliveworth and Taylor W. Crawworth brothers attempted to submit an application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for BTC ETF (transactional open-ended index fund). Although on September 22, 2018, US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected nine BTC ETF applications, the approval of BTC ETF application is a high probability event in the long run. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since the end of 2018, news about the organization of encrypted assets by mainstream institutions has continued.
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will start in May 2019, and mainstream institutions will enter the market, while ETF may become the core trend of the fourth round of BTC price cycle.
From the perspective of supply, the third halving of BTC begins around May 21, 2020. The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period. The price-rising cycle starts about one year before halving. From this perspective, the BTC price-rising cycle may be opened around May 2019.
From the time dimension, the complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The third round of the price cycle, which started in August 2015, will be completed around August 2019, and the fourth round of the price cycle of BTC will begin thereafter. Considering that the data in the second round of the price cycle is more reliable, only the second round of price cycle data is used as the measurement standard, the complete price cycle is 1377 days, about 3 years and 9 months, and the third round price cycle may end around May 2019.
Combined with the previous two BTC price cycles, the downturn phase of the current price cycle has been probably more than half, and further downside space is limited. In the first two rounds of the price cycle, the duration of the downlink phase is less than the duration of the uplink phase. The duration of the third phase of the price cycle has been confirmed (845 days), while the duration of the downturn phase has been more than half of the upstream phase (450 days). From the first two rounds of the price cycle, the rapid decline in prices occurred in the early stage of the downtrend phase. The price fluctuations of BTC in the second half of the downturn phase have been significantly reduced. The BTC price declines reached 61% in the first half and 74% in the second round of the price cycle, and the corresponding maximum declines in BTC were 94% and 84% respectively. In the current round of the price cycle, the biggest drop has reached 84%, so take it from now, even if the price is further down, the downside space is already limited.
Note: The data of the third round of the price cycle and the total duration are up to March 12, 2019.
From the price dimension, the downside space of the current round of BTC prices is limited, and the maximum increase of BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will become smaller. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed. On February 6, 2018, BTC fell to a minimum of 3,191.30 US dollars per piece, drop by 84.07%, has reached the low of second round of price cycle, from the perspective of price adjustment, BTC price downside has been more limited. The maximum increase in the fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will be smaller.
From the perspective of risk, after a year of continuous adjustment, BTC prices have fully fallen, risks have been gradually released, and investor’s risk appetite has risen to create favorable conditions for BTC prices to stabilize. Beginning at the end of December 2018, the VIX index has fallen, and now it has reached 15 or below. The investor's risk appetite has gradually picked up, creating favorable conditions for the BTC price to rise stably.
Last but not least, from the perspective of capital, the mainstream institutions accelerated their entry and many positive signals were released. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since 2018, on the one hand, the entry of mainstream institutions can bring incremental funds to the entire market, on the other hand, it also contributes to the formal development of the entire industry.
The value of the BTC's market value in circulation continues to increase, and the digital token embraces regulation. It is expected that the ETF will be the core trend in the fourth price cycle. As the value of the BTC and digital token market increases, their use will be more tied-up to legitimate use than illegal activities. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data, only 10% of the current BTC transactions is related to illegal activities and 90% is used for legal transactions. BTC's increasingly large market value requires more financial support. Digital token will embrace supervision to absorb more funds, and ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, there is going to be an evolution from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace supervision.
Although in this report, we try to predict the bottom and time of Token, especially BTC, by using time and space cycle, we would like to tell investors that it is very dangerous to invest basing on a specific dot and time. An investment shall base on the assessment of the value of the token.
Here are our suggestions: 1. Do not try to predict the market. Mistakes are liable to happen when you try to predict market harshly. 2. Feel the cycle. Cycle is always there, because of the constant human nature;3. Be with a good Token, which will bring you more chance to win. 4.Keep valuation in mind. The most important thing in value investing is to keep the valuation in mind. If the price is reasonable, everything is getable. The key is the difference between price and value (Absolute valuation method is not available with Token because of its specialty. However, a relative valuation method can be applied. Please refer to Token Toll’s report series).
For some reasons, some definition in this report are not very defined, such as: Token, Digital Token, Digital Currency, Currency, Crowdsale, etc.
If you have any questions, be free to call us to discuss with us.
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